Global Economic Activity

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US payrolls beat by 100,000 and Fed hike odds near 80% as Asian chip stocks rebound

Market tone:Mixed
  • A strong US jobs report raised the odds of a Fed rate rise. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 (BLS, 6 Nov). Consensus was about 65,000 (investingLive; consensus figures vary by compiler and GEA did not open other compilations). Markets now price roughly an 80% chance of a December hike, up from about 70% before the release (CME FedWatch, via investingLive, 9 Nov). The US 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51% (US Treasury).
  • Wall Street steadied after Thursday’s AI-led rout, but is still well below its highs. On 6 November the S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35% to 26,989.99, still 13.6% below its 6 October high (Yahoo Finance). The VIX, a gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, fell 9.0% to 25.64 but stays above its 19.12 five-year average.
  • Asia rebounded on Monday, unevenly. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 4.94% to 41,661.70 and the Nikkei 2.33% to 58,775.50, while the Kospi fell a further 0.81% to 5,018.85, 44.9% below its 22 June record (Yahoo Finance).
  • China’s prices show a wide gap between factory-gate and household inflation. October producer prices rose 5.7% from a year earlier, above the 5.3% forecast, while consumer prices rose 0.7%, below the 0.8% forecast (investingLive, 9 Nov). China also extended its suspension of a 24% tariff on US goods (see Political and Policy Developments).
  • US-Iran signals are mixed and oil is flat. Brent was $98.32 on 6 November (+0.03%) and about $97.50 on Monday morning (Yahoo Finance) after President Trump said new strikes were “highly unlikely” while Secretary of State Rubio said talks were not productive (investingLive, 9 Nov). US consumer price inflation is due tomorrow.

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Key numbers

Latest values in GEA’s record, to · All indicators

Today’s moves: stock markets

1-day change, % · to

  1. Taiwan TAIEXup 4.94 percent
  2. Nikkei 225up 2.33 percent
  3. Ibovespaup 1.39 percent
  4. Nasdaq 100up 1.35 percent
  5. S&P/TSX Compositeup 0.52 percent
  6. S&P/BMV IPCup 0.43 percent
  7. Shanghai Compositeup 0.32 percent
  8. S&P 500up 0.31 percent
  9. S&P/ASX 200up 0.10 percent
  10. Nifty 50up 0.06 percent
  11. Hang Seng Indexdown 0.13 percent
  12. FTSE/JSE Top 40down 0.49 percent
  13. KOSPIdown 0.81 percent
  14. CAC 40down 0.81 percent
  15. Euro Stoxx 50down 0.98 percent
  16. FTSE 100down 1.01 percent
  17. DAX 40down 1.92 percent
  18. Tadawul All Share Indexn/a
  19. MSCI Emerging Marketsn/a

Currencies

1-day change, % · to

  1. USD/KRWup 1.04 percent
  2. US Dollar Indexup 0.74 percent
  3. USD/ZARup 0.74 percent
  4. USD/CADup 0.72 percent
  5. USD/BRLup 0.68 percent
  6. USD/MXNup 0.61 percent
  7. USD/TRYup 0.21 percent
  8. USD/CHFup 0.12 percent
  9. USD/CNYup 0.04 percent
  10. USD/JPYdown 0.08 percent
  11. USD/NGNdown 0.10 percent
  12. EUR/USDdown 0.53 percent
  13. GBP/USDdown 0.55 percent
  14. USD/INRdown 0.59 percent
  15. USD/EGPdown 1.50 percent
  16. AUD/USDdown 1.86 percent

A rise means the first currency in the pair gained (USD/JPY up: the dollar bought more yen); the US Dollar Index measures the dollar against six major currencies.

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